LeSean McCoy is set to be the centerpiece of the Buffalo Bills’ new-look offense. (Photo: Kevin Hoffman — USA Today Sports)
BBD Editor: Dan Hope
Rex Ryan is known to be a defensive-minded coach, but you wouldn’t know it from the Buffalo Bills’ personnel moves during his first offseason with the team. Since the start of February, the Bills have acquired eight new players; all of them play offense.
In February, the Bills claimed wide receiver Justin Brown off waivers from the Pittsburgh Steelers, then signed veteran guard Richie Incognito as a street free agent. In early March, one week before free agency, the Bills really cranked the volume up to eleven when they made trades on back-to-back days for Philadelphia Eagles running back LeSean McCoy and Minnesota Vikings quarterback Matt Cassel. Since then, the Bills have continued to load up on offensive playmakers in free agency with the signings of quarterback Tyrod Taylor, fullback Jerome Felton, wide receiver Percy Harvin and tight end Charles Clay.
The Bills have taken a clearly defined approach to the offseason so far, and it’s easy to understand why. Their defense ranked fourth in the NFL in both points allowed and yards allowed last season, and will be returning nine of its 2014 starters for 2015. The Bills offense, on the other hand, ranked just 26th in yards per game, 18th in points per game and 26th in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA.
As a result of the Bills’ active offseason thus far, their offense could be unrecognizable in 2015. That’s a good thing—the Bills’ 2014 offense is certainly not one they ever want to replicate going forward—but it could take some getting used to.
There is likely to still be more talent added to the offense through the NFL draft, but at least in terms of free-agent signings and trades, the Bills’ big roster moves are probably complete. With that in mind, we can start breaking down how Buffalo’s new combination of parts, under new offensive coordinator Greg Roman, could all come together to form the 2015 Bills offense.
QB: EJ Manuel/Matt Cassel/Tyrod Taylor
The Buffalo Bills appear to be set for a three-way starting quarterback competition. Manuel, the 2013 first-round pick set to enter his third year with the team, still has the most potential of any quarterback on the roster, and should be given a full opportunity to win the job once again. But Cassel, who is now the most experienced signal-caller on the roster, and Taylor, who is the best athlete of the bunch, should also get a fair crack at taking the top spot of the depth chart.
Realistically, the Bills need to focus on finding stability, not greatness, in their quarterback play this season. Cassel, despite his own inconsistencies, is the most likely to provide that, unless Manuel makes great strides this offseason. Taking a look at the rest of the team’s offseason acquisitions, however, makes it clear that the Bills are expecting their quarterback to be a game manager, as they have assembled an offense full of weapons who can create yardage for themselves and be dynamic even with average quarterback play.
RB: LeSean McCoy and Co.
The Bills have four running backs—LeSean McCoy, Fred Jackson, Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown—who should all see playing time in 2015. That said, McCoy will be the star of the show this season. The NFL’s leading rusher in 2013, McCoy is a quick, agile runner with the vision to find lanes both inside and outside, while he is also a great pass-catcher out of the backfield. An upgraded version of C.J. Spiller for the Bills, McCoy might not quite see the 300+ carries he saw each of the past two seasons, but expect him to have the ball in his hands frequently so long as he is healthy.
Jackson, a hard-charging runner who has had at least 200 offensive touches in five of the past six seasons, will likely see a more managed workload this season at 34 years old. Dixon, who had a career-high 105 carries last season, might not see as many touches this year but will likely still have a role in the offense as the resident power back. Brown only had 52 offensive touches in his first year with the Bills, but he previously backed up McCoy in Philadelphia, can do many of the same things McCoy can, and could potentially end up emerging ahead of Jackson and Dixon as the No. 2 back on the depth chart because of his speed and playmaking ability.
FB: Jerome Felton
Unlike many modern NFL systems, Roman’s offense with the San Francisco 49ers regularly incorporated the use of a traditional fullback. The Bills’ signing of Jerome Felton, one of the best fullbacks in the NFL, confirms that Roman plans to make fullback play a staple of his offense once again.
Used almost entirely as a lead blocker for the Minnesota Vikings, Felton could play a key role in the success of Buffalo’s power running offense. Though he was not frequently utilized as a pass-catcher in Minnesota, he has shown to have reliable hands in the past, and will likely be used by the Bills as a receiver out of the backfield at times. Mostly, though, his ability to stick blocks will play a key role in keeping the offense churning.
X WR: Sammy Watkins
There is no doubt that Sammy Watkins, who led Buffalo with 982 receiving yards in his rookie season, will continue to be a major player within the Bills offense. Easily the most talented downfield receiver on the roster, Watkins is a skilled route-runner and fast target who should only get better with a year of experience under his belt.
The only real concern anyone should have with Watkins is that the team’s quarterback and overall offensive system might not utilize him to the best of his abilities. The 2015 Bills offense is not likely to be one that throws the ball downfield and deep with regularity, and even when it does, its quarterback to be named later might have trouble placing the ball accurately.
With that being said, Watkins will still be a major factor. He is too talented not to be, and it is up to Roman and the Bills’ coaching staff to find creative ways as necessary to get the ball in Watkins’ hands and allow him to use his speed and open-field running ability to Buffalo’s advantage. Additionally, his presence alone will make an impact, just because he will regularly draw matchups with opponents’ No. 1 cornerbacks, which will allow for the rest of the team’s to get more favorable coverage assignments.
Z WR: Robert Woods
Robert Woods is a reliable No. 2 wide receiver who should continue to be a go-to target for the Bills offense, especially in the intermediate passing game. He had a solid second NFL season, in which he caught 65 passes for 699 yards and five touchdowns, and will look to continue to build upon that for an even better third year.
Woods’ game might actually be a better fit for the Bills 2015 offense than Watkins, as he relies more upon his route-running prowess than deep speed to get open. He might only be the fourth- or fifth-most productive skill-position player in 2015 given the Bills’ new additions, but his place within the top three receivers on Buffalo’s depth chart should be safe. If the Bills are to make significant strides as a passing offense this year, they will need Woods to be at his best.
Slot WR: Percy Harvin
Percy Harvin projects as the “X-factor” on the Bills offense, a dynamic player who is more likely to be moved all around the offense and used creatively than to be consistently productive in a singular role. Both explosively fast and elusive in open space, Harvin is a player who can create with the ball in his hands, and be utilized as a runner or screen receiver but also be sent deep from either the slot or outside.
Given the presence of Watkins and Woods, Harvin’s primary role likely will be playing from the slot, where he can give the team a significantly more dangerous weapon than Chris Hogan, who proved to be very reliable in 2014 but does not have any game-changing traits. Harvin can be an enigma, and has clashed with teammates in previous stops, but he could also add a new dimension to the team’s offense that can help compensate for the lack of a top-end quarterback.
Harvin is also likely to be employed on special teams as one of the Bills’ kickoff returners. He has five career kickoff return touchdowns.
TE/H-Back: Charles Clay
The only tight end on the Bills’ roster with any track record of making plays in the NFL, Charles Clay should play a similar role to that which Delanie Walker played for the 49ers, with Roman, in 2011 and 2012. Able to line up either on the line of scrimmage or as an H-back coming out of the backfield, Clay projects as a significant factor in the Bills offense, both as a short-yardage pass-catcher and as a run blocker.
He won’t be competing with anyone like Vernon Davis for catches in Buffalo (unless the Bills draft a tight end), so he should be utilized much more heavily as a pass-catcher than Walker was in San Francisco. Clay has good size, and with enough athleticism to create some yardage for himself, he projects as a go-to target inside 10 yards for the Bills passing offense. With the money that the Bills have invested in him—$38 million over five years, per Vic Carucci of The Buffalo News—Clay is certainly envisioned to be a focal piece of what the Bills do when they have the ball.
LT: Cordy Glenn
After missing most of the preseason with an undisclosed illness, Cordy Glenn had trouble shaking off the rust in 2014, and did not have one of his best seasons as a pro. With that being said, Glenn has started all but three regular-season games in his first three years in the NFL, and is both a reliable and above-average left tackle.
Though it seems to be suggested every year that the Bills should move Glenn inside to guard, he has typically held his own against outside speed rushers and is the best offensive lineman Buffalo has on its roster. Unless the Bills make a surprise move for a left tackle, there is no reason to think that Glenn will not continue to be in this role—and perform it well—in 2015.
RT: Seantrel Henderson
Henderson’s rookie season has been lampooned as bad, largely because he accumulated the third-most negative score on Pro Football Focus among offensive tackles last season. People who are looking only at that number, however, are not getting a full perspective on Henderson’s first year.
The first seventh-round draft pick to start all 16 games in a season since 2004, Henderson largely held his own on the right side of the line, and showed tangible improvement over the course of the year. Assuming he continues to apply himself and stay clean off the field—his failure to do so in college was the reason he fell to Round 7 of the draft—Henderson should only continue to improve. He is likely to have to compete for his job in training camp with 2014 second-round pick Cyrus Kouandjio, and potentially another roster addition, but so long as Henderson continues to make positive development, he should be a Bills starter in 2015.
C: Eric Wood
The ugly truth with Wood is that he has not played as well over the past two seasons since signing a contract extension with the Bills in 2013. Nonetheless, he remains one of the team’s top two offensive linemen, along with Glenn, and his starting job is in no jeopardy for the upcoming season. A team captain, Wood is a respect leader of his unit, and a player the Bills need to be at his best for their offensive line to make necessary strides forward.
LG/RG: (Richie Incognito?)/(?)
Although the uncertainty at quarterback gets the headlines for obvious reasons, the guard position is truly the biggest question mark on the Bills offense, and their entire team, right now. The Bills have two starting spots to fill at the position, and no sure starters. If the Bills are going to have an effective power running offense, they need to have much better guard play in 2015 than they had from the Chris Williams/Cyril Richardson/Kraig Urbik turnstile at left guard and Erik Pears at right guard in 2014.
Richie Incognito, if he can avoid trouble in the locker room and off the field, projects as a favorite to start at either left guard or right guard. He has played on both sides of the line in the NFL, and is—at his best—an above-average starting guard with strength and nastiness. He remains a question mark for more reasons than one, however, as he has not played at all since the middle of the 2013 season.
Williams, Richardson and Urbik all remain on the roster, but whether any of them will earn a spot in the lineup this year is uncertain. It would be ideal for the Bills if Richardson, a 2014 fifth-round pick, becomes a more well-rounded player this offseason and is good enough to fill a starting spot in his sophomore season. Williams has enough skill to be a starter, but he has simply never been able to stay healthy for extended periods of time in his NFL career. Urbik is the most reliable option of this trio, but he is far from spectacular, and his recent pay cut suggests that he is being viewed as a depth player more than a starter for 2015.
Considering all of this, it’s clear what the Bills’ biggest position of need is as they head toward the NFL draft. With either their second- or third-round pick, the Bills should strongly consider drafting another guard, ideally one with enough experience to immediately compete for playing time. South Carolina’s A.J. Cann, Duke’s Laken Tomlinson, Alabama’s Arie Kouandjio, Florida State’s Tre Jackson and Hobart’s Ali Marpet are all guards who could garner consideration in the second or third round. Another guard who could be a third-round target for the Bills: Louisville’s John Miller, who reportedly had a two-day visit with the team this week, according to Josh Abner of CardinalAuthority.com.
Summary
In spite of the fact that the Bills remain subpar at the most important position on the field, there is reason to be excited about their offense for the 2015 season. With the addition of four really legitimate weapons in McCoy, Felton, Harvin and Clay, the Bills offense looks significantly more dynamic than it had in previous seasons.
The Bills also have plenty of depth at the skill positions. They have four quality running backs on the roster with Jackson, Dixon and Brown all returning. At wide receiver, Hogan, Brown and Marquise Goodwin could all factor into the offensive gameplan. The Bills could certainly benefit from adding another tight end—they were reportedly interested in signing injured free-agent tight end Jermaine Gresham, according to Vic Carucci of The Buffalo News—but Chris Gragg and MarQueis Gray can also make some plays from the H-back role that Clay will play.
The minds behind building the Bills offense—Roman, Ryan, general manager Doug Whaley—seem to have a clear purpose of making things easier for the quarterback. The Bills aren’t going to have an outstanding passer in 2015, but that doesn’t mean they can’t have an effective offense, at least one that is effective enough for them to make a playoff run. One area where the Bills still must seek improvements, however, is at guard, where poor play could cripple the Bills’ likely vision of being a run-first offense.
